Francis Zwiers

Director Climate Research Division 4905 Dufferin St., Toronto, Ont. M3H 5T4 Ph: Toronto: (416)739-4767 FAX: (416)739-5700 E-mail: francis.zwiers@ec.gc.ca

Education

• B.Math. (Waterloo)
• M.Sc. (Acadia)
• Ph.D. (Dalhousie)

Awards

• Patterson Distinguished Service Medal, Meteorological Service of Canada
• International Meetings on Statistical Climatology Achievement Award
• Fellow of the American Meteorological Society
• Fellow of the Royal Society of Canada
• President's Prize, Canadian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society.
• The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) shared the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize with Al Gore for "their efforts to build up and disseminate greater knowledge about man-made climate change, and to lay the foundations for the measures that are needed to counteract such change".

Committees and Appointments

• Director, Climate Research Division, Environment Canada, 2006-
• Vice Chair, Working Group I, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2008-
• Adjunct Professor, 2007-, Department of Physics, University of Toronto.
• Member, Ouranos Scientic Council, 2006-
• Co-chair, Joint WMO CCl/CLIVAR/JCOMM Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices, 2003-
• Chairman, Steering Committee, International Meetings on Statistical Climatology, 1992-

Research Interests

• Climate Variability and Extremes
• Climate Predictability
• Climate Change Detection
• Ensemble Simulations and Statistical Climatology.

Publications

• Yu, B., W.J. Merryfield, G.J. Boer, F.W. Zwiers, 2009: Covariability of SST and surface heat fluxes. Climate Dynamics, submitted.
• Kharin, V.V., Q. Teng, F.W. Zwiers, G.J. Boer, J.-S. Fontecilla, N. Gagnon, J. Derome, X. Zhang, 2009: Skill assessment of seasonal hindcasts from the Canadian Historical Forecast Project. Atmosphere-Ocean, submitted.
• Lee, T.C.K., M. Tsao, F.W. Zwiers, 2009: State-space model for proxy-based millennial reconstruction. Canadian Journal of Statistics, submitted.
• Christidis, N., P.A. Stott, F.W. Zwiers, H. Shiogama, T. Nozawa, 2009: Probabilistic estimates of recent changes in temperature forced by human activity: A multi-scale attribution analysis. Climate Dynamics, accepted.
• Wang, X., F.W. Zwiers, V.R. Swail, Y. Feng, 2009: Trends and Variability of Storminess in the Northeast Atlantic Region, 1874-2007. Climate Dynamics, in press, doi: 10.1007/s00382-008-0504-5.
• Doherty, S.J. et al., 2009: Lessons learned from IPCC AR4: Future scientific developments needed to understand, predict and respond to climate change, Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 90, 497-513, doi: 10.1175/2008BAMS2643.1.
• Min, S.-K., X. Zhang, F.W. Zwiers, P. Friederichs, A. Hense, 2009: Signal detectability in extreme precipitation changes assessed from twentieth century climate simulations. Climate Dynamics, 32, 95-111, doi: 10.1007/s00382-008-0376-8.
• Zhang, X., F.W. Zwiers, G.C. Hegerl, 2009: The influences of data precision on the calculation of temperature percentile indices. International Journal of Climatology, 29, 321-327, doi: 10.1002/joc.1738.
• Jones, P.J., et al., 2009: High-resolution paleoclimatology of the last millennium: a review of current status and future prospects. The Holocene, 19, 3-49, doi: 10.1177/0959683608098952.
• Wang, X.L., V.R. Swail, F.W. Zwiers, X. Zhang, Y. Feng, 2009: Detection of external influence on trends of atmospheric storminess and northern ocean wave heights. Climate Dynamics, 32, 189-203, doi: 10.1007/s00382-008-0442-2.
• Gutowski, W.J., G.C. Hegerl, G.J. Holland, T.R. Knutson, L.O. Mearns, R.J. Stouffer, P.J. Webster, M.F. Wehner, F.W. Zwiers, 2008: Causes of Observed Changes in Extremes and Projections of Future Changes, in {\em Weather and Climate Extremes in a Changing Climate. Regions of Focus: North America, Hawaii, Caribbean, and U.S. Pacific Islands.} T.R. Karl, G.A. Meehl, C.D. Miller, S.J. Hassol, A.M. Waple, and W.L. Murray (eds.). A Report by the U.S. Climate Change Science Program and the Subcommittee on Global Change Research, Washington, DC.
• Min, S.-K., X. Zhang, F.W. Zwiers, T. Agnew, 2008: Human influence on Arctic sea ice detectable from early 1990s onwards. Geophys. Res. Lett., L21701, doi:10.1029/2008GL035725.
• Zwiers, F.W., and G.C. Hegerl, 2008: Climate change: attributing cause and effect, Nature, 453, 296-297.
• Min, S.-K., X. Zhang, F.W. Zwiers, 2008: Human induced Arctic moistening. Science, 320, 518-520, doi: 10.1126/science.1153468
• Zhang, X., F.W. Zwiers, T.C. Peterson, 2008: The adaptation imperative: Is climate science ready? WMO Bulletin, 57, 103-108.
• Lee, T.C.K., F.W. Zwiers and M. Tsao, 2008: Evaluation of millennial proxy reconstruction methods. Climate Dynamics, 31, 263-281, doi 10.1007/s00382-007-0351-9.
• Forster, P., G.C. Hegerl, R. Knutti, V. Ramasamy, S. Solomon, T.F. Stocker, P.A. Stott, F.W. Zwiers, 2007: Reply to Commentary by Schwartz, Charlson and Rodhe, Nature Reports Climate Change, 4, 63-64.
• Zhang, X., F.W. Zwiers, G.C. Hegerl, F.H. Lambert, N.P Gillett, S. Solomon, P.A. Stott, T. Nozawa, 2007: Detection of human influence on twentieth-century precipitation trends. Nature, 448, 461-465, doi:10.1038/nature06025.
• Hegerl, G.C., F.W. Zwiers, P. Braconnot, N. Gillett, J. Marengo, N. Nicholls, J. Penner, P. Stott, Y. Lou, 2007: Understanding and attribution climate change. In: Climate Change 2007: The physical science basis, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Working Group 1 contribution to the 4th Assessment Report, Cambridge University Press.
• Wu, A., W.W. Hsieh, G.J. Boer, and F.W. Zwiers, 2007: Changes in the Arctic Oscillation under increased atmospheric greenhouse gases. Geophysical Research Letters., 34, L12701, doi:10.1029/2007GL029344.
• Yu, B. and F.W. Zwiers, 2007: The impact of combined ENSO and PDO on the PNA climate: a 1000-yr climate modeling study. Climate Dynamics, 29, 837-851, doi:10.1007/s00382-007-0267-4.
• Yu, B., A. Shabbar, F.W. Zwiers, 2007: The enhanced PNA-like climate response to Pacific interannual and decadal variability. Journal of Climate, 20, 5285-5300, doi:10.1175/2007JCLI1480.1.
• Kharin, V.V., F.W. Zwiers, X. Zhang, and G.C. Hegerl, 2007: Changes in temperature and precipitation extremes in the IPCC ensemble of global coupled model simulations. Journal of Climate, 20, 1419-1444.
• Dang, H., N.P. Gillett, A.J. Weaver and F.W. Zwiers, 2007: Climate change detection over different land surface vegetation classes. International Journal of Climatology, 27, 211-220..
• Lee, T.C.K., F.W. Zwiers, X. Zhang and M. Tsao, 2006: Evidence of decadal climate prediction skill resulting from changes in anthropogenic forcing. Journal of Climate, 19, 5305-5318.
• Zhang, X., F.W. Zwiers and P.A. Stott, 2006: Multi-model multi-signal climate change detection at regional scale. Journal of Climate, 19, 4294-4307.
• Hegerl, G.C., T.R. Karl, M. Allen, N.L. Bindoff, N. Gillett, D. Karoly, X. Zhang, F.W. Zwiers, 2006: Climate change detection and attribution: beyond mean temperature signals. Journal of Climate, 19, 5058-5077.
• Wang, X.L., V.R. Swail and F.W. Zwiers, 2006: Climatology and changes of extra-tropical storm tracks and cyclone activity: comparison of ERA-40 with NCEP/NCAR reanalysis for 1958-2001, Journal of Climate, 19, 3145-3166.
• Wu, A., W.W. Hsieh, A. Shabbar, G.J. Boer and F.W. Zwiers, 2006: The nonlinear association between the Arctic Oscillation and North American winter climate. Climate Dynamics, DOI: 10.1007/s00382-006-0118-8.
• Kharin, V.V., F.W. Zwiers, and X. Zhang, 2005 Intercomparison of near surface temperature and precipitation extremes in AMIP-2 simulations, reanalyses and observations. Journal of Climate, 18, 5201-5223.
• Lee, T.C.K., F.W. Zwiers, G.C. Hegerl, X. Zhang, and M. Tsao, 2005: A Bayesian climate change detection and attribution assessment. Journal of Climate, 18, 2429-2440.
• Zhang, X., G.C. Hegerl, F.W. Zwiers, J. Kenyon, 2005: Avoiding inhomogeniety in percentile-based indices of temperature extremes. Journal of Climate, 18, 1641-1651.
• IDAG (International ad hoc Detection and Attribution Group), 2005: Detecting and attributing external influences on the climate system: A review of recent advances. Journal of Climate, 18, 1291-1314.
• Kharin, V.V., and F.W. Zwiers, 2005: Estimating extremes in transient climate change simulations. Journal of Climate, 18, 1156-1173.
• Gillet, N.P., A.J. Weaver, F.W. Zwiers, M.D. Flannigan, 2004: Detecting the effect of human induced climate change on Canadian forest fires. Geophysical Research Letters, 31, L18211, doi:10.1029/2004GL020876.
• Gillett, N.P., A.J. Weaver, F.W. Zwiers, M.F. Wehner, 2004: Detection of volcanic influence on global precipitation. Geophysical Research Letters, 31, L12217, doi:10.1029/2004GL020044.
• Zwiers, F.W., and H. von Storch, 2004: On the role of statistics in climate research. International Journal of Climatology, 24, 665-680.
• Zhang, X., and F.W. Zwiers, 2004: Comments on "Applicability of prewhitening to eliminate the influence of serial correlation on the Mann-Kendall test". Water Resources Research, 40, W03805, doi:10.1029/2003WR002073.
• Hegerl, G.C., F.W. Zwiers, P.A. Stott and V.V. Kharin, 2004: Detectability of anthropogenic changes in temperature and precipitation extremes. Journal of Climate, 17, 3683-3700.
• Wang, X.L., F.W. Zwiers, and V. Swail, 2004: North Atlantic ocean wave climate scenarios for the 21st century. Journal of Climate, 17, 2368-2383.
• Zhang, X., F.W. Zwiers, and G. Li, 2004: Monte Carlo experiments on the detection of trends in extreme values. Journal of Climate, 17, 1945-1952.
• Karoly, D.J., J.F.B. Mitchell, M. Allen, G. Hegerl, J. Marengo and F. Zwiers, 2003: Comment on Soon et al. (2001) 'Modeling climatic effects of anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions: unknowns and uncertainties'. Climate Research, 24, 91-92.
• Kharin, V.V., and F.W. Zwiers, 2003: On the ROC score of probability forecasts. Journal of Climate, 16, 4145-4150.
• Gillett, N.P., F.W. Zwiers, A.J. Weaver and P.A. Stott, 2003: Detection of human influence on sea-level pressure. Nature 422, 292-294.
• Zwiers, F.W., and X. Zhang, 2003: Towards regional climate change detection. Journal of Climate, 16, 793-797.
• Kharin, V.V., and F.W. Zwiers, 2003: Improved seasonal probability forecasts. Journal of Climate, 16, 1684-1701.
• Wu, A., W.W. Hsieh and F.W. Zwiers, 2003: Nonlinear modes of North American winter climate variability derived from a general circulation model simulation. Journal of Climate, 16, 2325-2339.
• Gillet, N.P., F.W. Zwiers, A.J. Weaver, G.C. Hegerl, M.R. Allen, and P.A. Stott, 2002: Detecting anthropogenic influence with a multi-model ensemble. Geophysical Research Letters , 10.1029/2002GL015836.
• Zwiers, F.W., 2002: Climage change. The 20-year forecast. Nature , 416, 690-691.
• Kharin, V.V. and F.W. Zwiers, 2002: Climate predictions with multi-model ensembles. Journal of Climate, 15, 793-799.
• Zwiers, F.W., 2001: Global climate change detection and attribution. In: El-Shaarawi, A., and W. Piergorsch (Eds.), Encylopedia of Environmetrics, Wiley, 2672pp.
• Mitchell, J.F.B., D.J. Karoly, G.C. Hegerl, F.W. Zwiers, M.R. Allen and J. Marengo, 2001: Detection of climate change and attribution of causes. Chapter 12, IPCC Working Group 1 Third Assessment Report, Cambridge University Press.
• Kharin, V.V., F.W. Zwiers and N. Gagnon, 2001: Skill of seasonal hindcasts as a function of the ensemble size. Climate Dynamics, 17, 835-843.
• Hsu, C.J., and F.W. Zwiers, 2001: Climate change in recurrent regimes and modes of atmospheric variability. Journal of Geophysical Research, 106(D17), 20145-20159.
• Derome, J., G. Brunet, A. Plante, N. Gagnon, G.J. Boer, F.W. Zwiers, S.J. Lambert, J. Sheng and H. Ritchie, 2001: Seasonal Predictions Based on Two Dynamical Models. Atmosphere-Ocean, 39, 485-501.
• Wang, X.L., and F.W. Zwiers, 2001: Using Redundancy Analysis to improve dynamical seasonal mean 500 hPa geopotential forecasts. Int. J. Climatology, 21, 637-654.
• Kharin, V.V., and F.W. Zwiers, 2001: Skill as a function of time scale in two ensembles of seasonal forecasts. Climate Dynamics, 17, 127-141.
• Zwiers, F.W. and A.J. Weaver, 2000: The causes of 20th century warming. Science, 290, 2081-2082.
• Weaver, A.J. and F.W. Zwiers, 2000: Uncertainty in climate change. Nature, 407, 571-572.
• Stone, D.A., A.J. Weaver and F.W. Zwiers, 2000: Trends in Canadian precipitation intensity. Atmosphere-Ocean, 38(2), 321-347.
• Kharin, V.V., and F.W. Zwiers, 2000: Changes in the extremes in an ensemble of transient climate simulation with a coupled atmosphere-ocean GCM, Journal of Climate, 13, 3760-3788.
• Meehl, G.A., T. Karl., D.R. Easterling, S. Changnon, R. Pielke Jr., D. Changnon, J. Evans, P.Ya. Groisman, T.R. Knutson, K. Kunkel, L.O. Mearns, T. Root, R.B. Street, R.T. Sylves, P. Whetton and F.W. Zwiers, 2000: Introduction to trends in extreme weather and climate events: Observations, socio-economic impacts, and model projections, Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 81, 413-416.
• Meehl, G.A., F.W. Zwiers, T. Knutson, L.O. Mearns and P. Whetton, 2000: Trends in extreme weather in climate events: Issues related to modelling extremes in projection of future climate change, Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 81, 427-436.
• Zwiers, F.W., X.L. Wang and J. Sheng, 2000: Effects of specifying bottom boundary conditions in an ensemble of atmospheric GCM simulations. J. Geophys. Res., 105(D6), 7295-7315.
• von Storch, H. and F.W. Zwiers, 1999: Statistical Analysis in Climate Research . Cambridge University Press, 484 pp, ISBN 0521 450713.
• Rowell, D.P. and F.W. Zwiers, 1999: Source of atmospheric decadal variability over the Globe, Tropical Pacific and southern North America, Climate Dynamics, 15, 751-772.
• Wang, X.L. and F.W. Zwiers, 1999: Interannual variability of precipitation in an ensemble of AMIP climate simulations conducted with CCC GCM2. Journal of Climate , 12, 1322-1335
• Zwiers F.W., 1999: Climate Change Detection: A review of Techniques and Applications. In von Storch, H., Raschke, E., and Floeser, G., (editors), 1999: Anthropogenic Climate Change. Proceedings of the First GKSS Spring School on Environmental Research. Springer Verlag, pp161-203. [PDF].
• Zwiers, F.W. and V.V.Kharin, 1998: Changes in the extremes of the climate simulated by CCC GCM2 under CO₂ doubling. Journal of Climate, 11, 2200-2222.
• Zwiers, F.W. and V.V.Kharin, 1998: Intercomparison of interannual variability and potential predictability: An AMIP diagnostic subproject. Climate Dynamics, 14, 517-528.
• Sheng, J. and F.W. Zwiers, 1998: An improved scheme for time-dependent boundary conditions in atmospheric general circulation models. Climate Dynamics, 14, 609-613.
• Zwiers, F.W. and S.S. Shen, 1997: Errors in estimating spherical harmonic coefficients from partially sampled GCM output. Climate Dynamics, 13, 703-716.
• Zwiers, F.W., 1996: Interannual variability and predictability in an ensemble of AMIP climate simulations conducted with CCC GCM2. Climate Dynamics, 12, 825-847.
• Zwiers, F.W. and H. von Storch, 1995: Taking serial correlation into account in tests of the mean. Journal of Climate , 8, 336-351.

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