These animations show the 5-member ensemble mean change (relative to the average of 1981-2000) in the 5-year running mean surface air temperature simulated in the IPCC SRES A1B experiment with CGCM3. The details of the forcing can be found in the CGCM3 forcing section.
Note that there is more warming over land and polar regions than over the oceans. The rapidly varying jumpy features of the animation are caused by natural variations (year-to-year changes in weather patterns) that are simulated by the climate model. Natural variation is also the cause of the differences between the three simulations. These variations which are also part of the observed climate system, make it difficult to project possible future climate change in detail.
Data from these and other simulations are available for downloading from our data section.